What will the world of communications and the internet look like in 2044?
That’s the question we asked ourselves when we embarked on our Future Scenarios Project in 2023. In early May 2024, we released our Future Scenarios Project Report, which presented three different views of what the world and internet might look like 20 years from now.
To launch the report, auDA CEO Rosemary Sinclair AM hosted a webinar alongside leading strategy and foresight practitioner and Associate Fellow at the Saïd Business School, Dr Matt Finch, who supported auDA’s scenarios project.
In this blog, we share some key takeaways from the webinar and take a closer look at each scenario.
What do we mean by “scenarios”?
For our Future Scenarios Project, scenarios are vehicles to explore plausible ways in which our future operating environment might unfold, to challenge current assumptions about the future of communications and navigate ambiguity that we might face. They are not predictions of the future or desired end states.
As Matt said “Things might not remain as they are, and we can't rely on tomorrow being like today or yesterday. Scenarios let us explore how uncertainties in our environment might play out over time.”
Matt also explained that it’s important to understand the distinction between scenarios, options and strategy.
- Scenarios are plausible future states that challenge assumptions
- Options are all the possible actions an individual or organisation could choose to carry out
- Strategy is what an individual or organisation decides to do – how they choose to allocate their finite resources based on the best information currently at hand.
Why did auDA conduct the Future Scenarios Project?
Our forward strategy, which will guide our operations and activities, is at the heart of auDA’s Future Scenarios Project.
As Rosemary expressed, we undertook the project “to think deeply and carefully about the future”.
“One reason [for the project] is really a practical reason,” she said. “Our current five-year corporate strategy is about to come to an end [in June 2025] and we've got to start on the development of the next strategy.”
“The second and broader reason is that we all have a sense that the future, the challenges that we face and the opportunities that will arise, will be very different to the challenges and opportunities that have gotten us to this point.”
In this way, auDA’s scenarios provide a lens to broaden our thinking about what may be possible or plausible in five, ten or twenty years, and what strategic options we should consider as we commence our strategic planning for 2026-30.
What are the auDA scenarios?
The detailed scenarios are set out in our Future Scenarios Project Report. They were briefly summarised in the webinar and an overview is provided below.
Scenario 1: State of Alert 2044
National security is the priority in a world of global tensions. By 2044, the world is characterised by rising geopolitical competition. Security becomes more important to citizens than liberty. People are expected to be “citizen-soldiers”, doing their patriotic duty in the fight against climate catastrophe as well as keeping watch against foreign adversaries.
The internet is a critical national security asset divided along geopolitical lines with protocols designed to maximise security within each block and sharpen competitiveness against international rivals. Dissent is restricted and censorship is widespread. Information is the property of the state and it’s the duty of citizens to produce it. Identity is biometrically linked with a single identifier for each user within a national system. Privacy is unpatriotic.
Scenario 2: Ecological Civilisation 2044
Collective resilience is the priority in a world where environmental catastrophe can no longer be ignored. Crises once expected to happen once in a century have become the norm and humanity has recognised it must pull together to respond to this existential threat.
In 2044, digital infrastructure incorporates the natural world – the Internet of Everything includes animal-computer interaction, plant-computer interaction and networked objects in outer space. Information is open wherever possible. Whoever you are, you and your community should have the tools and resources you need to play your part in the climate battle.
The internet is federalised and considered a tool for climate solutions. Digital interactions are regulated for energy use and climate impact. Individuals recognise they must put the community's needs first and privacy is a matter of abstinence from the digital environment.
Scenario 3: The Price is Right 2044
Profit is the priority in a world where corporations transcend the nation state. During the 2020s citizens lost trust in the state's ability to protect them from disinformation and cyberattacks, and technological breakthroughs by the private sector increased faith in celebrity tycoons as saviours of humanity.
In 2044, citizens are consumers first and foremost. Former public services are offered on a subscription basis. Even law enforcement requires victims of crime to hold “investigation insurance” to obtain full justice. Information of every kind is a tradable commodity. Individuals use different personas to access different services and must take increasing responsibility for matters that were once the preserve of the state.
The internet is global, designed to maximise opportunities for profit and innovation. Privacy has become a privilege to be traded by brokers on data exchanges.
What are the value of the scenarios?
Rosemary noted, “The value of scenarios in the strategy process is to make sure we don't do the easy thing. The easy thing is to take the existing strategy and give it a minor tweak. I don’t think that’s in the interests of the Australian community.”
She continued, “The scenarios force us to look out towards 2044 and ask is it likely that in 20 years’ time I'll be doing what I'm doing now? That starts me down a path thinking, what would I be doing in 2044 if I were running Australia’s part of the internet for the benefit of the Australian community? [The scenarios] drive me to ask more questions and that helps me get to a better, more informed answer.”
As Matt reminded us, scenarios are not about “staring into the crystal ball and predicting what is to come. Part of this work is resisting taking a definitive, exclusive singular view on the future, but acknowledging that there is uncertainty.
“We're not talking the future into inevitability…[scenarios provide] a chance to think differently.”
To learn more:
- Watch the Future Scenarios Project Report webinar
- Read the Future Scenarios Project Report
- Read our first blog introducing the project.
Quotes have been editing for clarity and brevity.
